NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) · 2000–2025
23.80%a year vs 8.07% S&P 500
- Positive years
- 26 of 26
- Up when the S&P 500 fell
- 6 of 6
- Beat the S&P 500
- 20 of 26
- Sortino ratio
- 3.01 vs 0.88
The Beckett Bull Bear Algorithm
Every year positive. Bull or bear.
Backtested by TradingView through the dot-com crash, 2008 and 2022.
Bull Bear 50 · TQQQ / SQQQ (3×) · 2011–2025
65.86%a year vs 14.06% S&P 500
- Positive years
- 15 of 15
- Up when the S&P 500 fell
- 2 of 2
- Beat the S&P 500
- 15 of 15
- Sortino ratio
- 3.60 vs 1.66
Hypothetical backtests and reconstructed historical results, full calendar years. Not live subscriber results; the live Collective2 record began in September 2026. Disclosures
On the NASDAQ-100
26 years. Two market directions. One algorithm.
TradingView’s Strategy Tester ran the algorithm on five-minute NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) data beginning January 2000. Calendar-year returns are calculated from TradingView’s trade history, with any open position valued at the year-end close.
26 / 26
Positive full calendar years
6 / 6
Positive in years when the S&P 500 declined
20 / 26
Calendar years outperforming the S&P 500
23.80%
Compound annual return (CAGR), 2000–2025
| Measure · 2000–2025 (26 complete years) | QQQ algorithmLong and short, 1× | S&P 500Dividends reinvested |
|---|---|---|
| Compound growth per year (CAGR) | 23.80% | 8.07% |
| Years that finished with a gain | 26 of 26 | 20 of 26 |
| Positive when the S&P 500 lost money | 6 of 6 | — |
| Years ahead of the S&P 500 | 20 of 26 | — |
| Sortino ratio (return vs. downside risk) | 3.01 | 0.88 |
| Trades that finished with a gain | 57.03% | N/A |
| Largest drop visible at month-end | −16.22% | −50.95% |
| Average month-end drop | −4.17% | −7.77% |
Read this before investing. If an account grows to $10,000 and then falls to $8,000, that is a 20% drop. The two “drop” rows use month-end account values. A fall between month-ends can be much larger: the QQQ historical research separately documented a temporary portfolio decline of 30.86%.
Source: reconstructed QQQ TradingView trade journal and historical QQQ prices, compared with the S&P 500 total-return index. Historical estimates, not live Collective2 subscriber results.
Performance in bear markets
Six difficult years for the S&P 500. Six positive years for the QQQ backtest.
The comparison below covers every calendar year from 2000–2025 when the S&P 500 delivered a negative total return. Returns are annual, not peak-to-trough or intra-year measurements.
Years in which the S&P 500 declined
The S&P 500 comparison includes reinvested dividends. QQQ results come from TradingView’s backtest, including its commission and slippage settings.
2000–2002 · Dot-com collapse
Three consecutive negative S&P 500 years
S&P 500 −37.61%QQQ strategy +69.65%
2008 · Financial crisis
A year of severe market stress
S&P 500 −37.00%QQQ strategy +47.42%
2022 · Inflation & rate shock
Rising rates, falling stocks
S&P 500 −18.11%QQQ strategy +20.72%
2001 QQQ model +20.59%2002 +12.76%2018 +15.62%
Performance in rising markets
The strategy also participated in major recoveries.
Protection alone would not tell the whole story. In the QQQ backtest, 2003, 2009, 2013, 2020, and 2023 each produced strong positive returns. It did not outperform the S&P 500 every year: the benchmark led in six of the 26 years.
2003 · Recovery
Post-dot-com rebound
S&P 500 +28.68%QQQ strategy +42.99%
2009 · Recovery
After the financial crisis
S&P 500 +26.46%QQQ strategy +32.61%
2023 · Bull-market recovery
Renewed growth leadership
S&P 500 +26.29%QQQ strategy +36.00%
Selected examples, not a complete depiction of performance. The full annual record—including years of benchmark underperformance—is below.
The long-term illustration
What a hypothetical $10,000 became over 26 completed years.
Year-end values from the TradingView backtest are compounded rather than closed trades simply added together. This is a linear scale, not a logarithmic chart; the growing separation is deliberately shown in dollar terms.
$2,572,925QQQ backtest ending value
$75,285S&P 500 total return, same period
23.80%QQQ backtest CAGR (S&P 500: 8.07%)
Starting value $10,000 at the beginning of 2000. The plotted values are compounded from the annual return table; the labels above use the backtest’s published ending values. These are hypothetical backtest values, not account statements, and they do not show declines within each year.
Table 1 · NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) · unleveraged
The full annual record: 2000–2025.
Green numbers indicate positive returns or strategy advantages; red numbers indicate losses or negative relative results. “Advantage” is the QQQ model’s return minus the S&P 500 total return in percentage points.
| Year | Market | S&P 500 | QQQ strategy (1×) | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | S&P down | −9.10% | +24.77% | +33.87 pts |
| 2001 | S&P down | −11.89% | +20.59% | +32.48 pts |
| 2002 | S&P down | −22.10% | +12.76% | +34.86 pts |
| 2003 | S&P up | +28.68% | +42.99% | +14.31 pts |
| 2004 | S&P up | +10.88% | +19.89% | +9.01 pts |
| 2005 | S&P up | +4.91% | +13.34% | +8.43 pts |
| 2006 | S&P up | +15.79% | +15.38% | −0.41 pts |
| 2007 | S&P up | +5.49% | +18.65% | +13.16 pts |
| 2008 | S&P down | −37.00% | +47.42% | +84.42 pts |
| 2009 | S&P up | +26.46% | +32.61% | +6.15 pts |
| 2010 | S&P up | +15.06% | +40.59% | +25.53 pts |
| 2011 | S&P up | +2.11% | +11.77% | +9.66 pts |
| 2012 | S&P up | +16.00% | +27.38% | +11.38 pts |
| 2013 | S&P up | +32.39% | +35.04% | +2.65 pts |
| 2014 | S&P up | +13.69% | +12.60% | −1.09 pts |
| 2015 | S&P up | +1.38% | +9.22% | +7.84 pts |
| 2016 | S&P up | +11.96% | +8.24% | −3.72 pts |
| 2017 | S&P up | +21.83% | +31.46% | +9.63 pts |
| 2018 | S&P down | −4.38% | +15.62% | +20.00 pts |
| 2019 | S&P up | +31.49% | +22.44% | −9.05 pts |
| 2020 | S&P up | +18.40% | +38.32% | +19.92 pts |
| 2021 | S&P up | +28.71% | +26.80% | −1.91 pts |
| 2022 | S&P down | −18.11% | +20.72% | +38.83 pts |
| 2023 | S&P up | +26.29% | +36.00% | +9.71 pts |
| 2024 | S&P up | +25.02% | +24.82% | −0.20 pts |
| 2025 | S&P up | +17.88% | +21.22% | +3.34 pts |
QQQ results are reconstructed from TradingView executions and year-end prices (export dated October 9, 2026). 2026 is excluded as a partial year. All figures are hypothetical.
Table 2 · TQQQ · 3× leveraged ETFs · 2011–2025
Three TQQQ models. One flagship.
The Bull Bear algorithm has been built in three TQQQ versions. Each is named for roughly how many trades it completed per year. The Bull Bear 50 is the flagship: it holds TQQQ in rising markets and its inverse, SQQQ, in falling markets, and it is the model tracked live on Collective2. The Bull Bear 4 and Bull Bear 6 hold TQQQ only and sit in cash when out of the market. All three are measured over the same 15 complete calendar years against the same dividend-reinvested S&P 500.
Bull Bear 50
TQQQ + SQQQ · about 51 trades a year
65.86%compound growth per year
- Positive years
- 15 of 15
- Up when the S&P 500 fell
- 2 of 2
- Largest month-end drop
- −26.26%
- $10,000 became
- $19.8 million
Bull Bear 4
TQQQ only · about 4 trades a year
60.47%compound growth per year
- Positive years
- 14 of 15
- Up when the S&P 500 fell
- 1 of 2
- Largest month-end drop
- −27.21%
- $10,000 became
- $12.0 million
Bull Bear 6
TQQQ only · about 6 trades a year
71.69%compound growth per year
- Positive years
- 14 of 15
- Up when the S&P 500 fell
- 1 of 2
- Largest month-end drop
- −48.54%
- $10,000 became
- $33.2 million
| Measure · 2011–2025 | Bull Bear 50TQQQ + SQQQ | Bull Bear 4TQQQ only | Bull Bear 6TQQQ only | S&P 500Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years measured | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Compound growth per year (CAGR) | 65.86% | 60.47% | 71.69% | 14.06% |
| Ending value of $10,000 | $19,776,685 | $12,043,680 | $33,212,415 | $71,988 |
| Years that finished with a gain | 15 of 15 | 14 of 15 | 14 of 15 | 13 of 15 |
| Positive when the S&P 500 lost money | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | — |
| Years ahead of the S&P 500 | 15 of 15 | 15 of 15 | 13 of 15 | — |
| Sortino ratio (return vs. downside risk) | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.39 | 1.66 |
| Trades that finished with a gain | 56.49% | 68.33% | 83.33% | N/A |
| Average completed trades per year | 50.9 | 4.0 | 6.4 | N/A |
| Largest drop visible at month-end | −26.26% | −27.21% | −48.54% | −23.87% |
| Average month-end drop | −10.17% | −10.15% | −10.52% | −5.58% |
What the difference means. The Bull Bear 6 had the highest estimated annual growth and the most winning trades, but also by far the largest month-end loss. Both TQQQ-only models ended 2022 in the red. The Bull Bear 50’s bearish SQQQ side is what carried it through 2022 with a gain. None of these figures is a prediction. Note also that every TQQQ model had deeper month-end drops than the S&P 500: leverage magnifies both gains and losses.
2022 — a realistic stress test
Same falling market, three different signal sets and holding periods, three very different outcomes.
Bull Bear 50
+12.65%
Bull Bear 4
−14.79%
Bull Bear 6
−43.55%
S&P 500
−18.11%
Year-by-year scorecard, 2011–2025
Year-end portfolio estimates using each model’s completed trades plus the estimated value of any open position.
| Year | Market | S&P 500 | Bull Bear 50 | Bull Bear 4 | Bull Bear 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | S&P up | +2.11% | +21.93% | +21.49% | +25.43% |
| 2012 | S&P up | +16.00% | +77.96% | +72.74% | +49.66% |
| 2013 | S&P up | +32.39% | +123.74% | +139.72% | +92.51% |
| 2014 | S&P up | +13.69% | +58.04% | +57.80% | +56.95% |
| 2015 | S&P up | +1.38% | +24.88% | +27.31% | +88.91% |
| 2016 | S&P up | +11.96% | +21.62% | +23.78% | +26.01% |
| 2017 | S&P up | +21.83% | +118.56% | +118.05% | +115.79% |
| 2018 | S&P down | −4.38% | +48.67% | +51.37% | +148.11% |
| 2019 | S&P up | +31.49% | +84.74% | +86.60% | +149.77% |
| 2020 | S&P up | +18.40% | +144.63% | +126.40% | +169.54% |
| 2021 | S&P up | +28.71% | +79.07% | +82.98% | +25.73% |
| 2022 | S&P down | −18.11% | +12.65% | −14.79% | −43.55% |
| 2023 | S&P up | +26.29% | +115.03% | +99.49% | +170.24% |
| 2024 | S&P up | +25.02% | +33.01% | +36.50% | +78.02% |
| 2025 | S&P up | +17.88% | +100.33% | +62.64% | +99.88% |
Figures rounded to 0.01%; small differences can arise from independently rounded annual numbers. Year-end positions were estimated from daily ETF closing prices, not independently audited trade fills. A $10,000 starting balance at the end of 2010 is scaled using each model’s December 2025 equity relative to its December 2010 equity. Average trades per year = completed trades during 2011–2025 ÷ 15 (Bull Bear 50: 763; Bull Bear 4: 60; Bull Bear 6: 96). Hypothetical results, not actual trading.
Next step
Put the algorithm to work for you.
See every live trade of the flagship Bull Bear 50 on Collective2, where it is tracked in real time and subscribers can follow it automatically. New to the method? Start with the free book.
Not a solicitation for personalized investment advice. Trading involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment.
Risk versus reward
Positive years did not mean a smooth ride.
A calendar-year scorecard answers what happened between two December 31 marks. It does not tell an investor how deeply the account fell at any point in between—or how difficult those declines would have been to hold through.
What the backtest does show
Across the 26 complete years, the QQQ backtest’s lowest calendar year was +8.24% (2016) and its highest was +47.42% (2008). Its compound annual return was 23.80%.
That spread describes variation in full-year outcomes. Measured at month-ends, the QQQ model’s largest drop was −16.22% versus −50.95% for the S&P 500; the flagship Bull Bear 50’s was −26.26% versus −23.87% for the S&P 500 over 2011–2025.
Risk may be worse than shown
- Between month-ends: month-end snapshots miss falls inside a month. The QQQ research documented a temporary decline of 30.86%.
- Bull Bear 50: its combined trade ledger records a −43.83% fall measured at completed-trade exits, deeper than the −26.26% visible at month-ends.
- Bull Bear 6: one trade in 2022 went 47.01% against the position before it closed; the month-end series recorded a −48.54% fall.
- Live execution and the future: actual fills, spreads, borrow and financing costs can differ. Large losses and losing years remain possible.
These measurements use different observation times and can differ substantially. A fully fair investor-experience comparison would need a consistent daily or intraday equity series, including open-position mark-to-market, financing and execution costs. Actual losses might be greater than any figure shown here.
Disclosures & methodology
How to read these figures.
All results on this page are simulated, backtested or reconstructed historical results, not results earned by subscribers following Collective2. The QQQ model is unleveraged; the three TQQQ models use 3× leveraged ETFs. None is the live Collective2 track record, which is published separately and began in September 2026. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
What these numbers mean
- Compound growth per year (CAGR)The average annual rate that turns the starting balance into the ending balance. It does not mean the account earned that amount every year.
- Trades that finished with a gainThe percentage of completed trades with a positive net profit. A high win rate does not prevent a major loss.
- Largest drop visible at month-endThe biggest decline from an earlier account high to a later month-end low. Example: $10,000 falling to $7,000 is a 30% drop, even if the account later recovers.
- Average month-end dropThe average worst decline in each separate period spent below a previous high, using monthly snapshots only. Smaller movements between snapshots are not fully visible.
- Sortino ratioReturn relative to downside variability. Higher can be better, but it cannot tell you how large the next temporary loss might be.
- Average trades per yearCompleted trades from 2011 to 2025 divided by 15. The model names describe approximate trade counts, not a promise of a specific trading frequency.
What was actually tested?
Table 1: the algorithm trading the NASDAQ-100 through QQQ, long and short, unleveraged, on five-minute bars from January 2000. Table 2: three TQQQ models. The Bull Bear 50 (previously labelled “Weekly”) rotates between TQQQ and the inverse SQQQ. The Bull Bear 4 (“Monthly”) and Bull Bear 6 (“Quarterly”) trade TQQQ long only; their trade journals contain no SQQQ positions. These are related model variants, not identical strategies.
How were yearly returns and drops calculated?
QQQ results are reconstructed from the TradingView trade journal and year-end QQQ prices. The 2011–2025 TQQQ figures were recalculated at each month-end from the trade journals and daily ETF closing prices: completed-trade net profit plus the estimated value of any position still open, based on the ratio of the ETF’s closing price at month-end to its price on the entry date. Because the TradingView entries were intraday, these estimates can differ from exact five-minute mark-to-market equity. Sortino ratios use a 0% monthly target and annualized monthly downside deviation (312 monthly observations for QQQ and the S&P 500 over 2000–2025; 180 for the TQQQ models and the S&P 500 over 2011–2025). Figures calculated over other dates or with other methods, including earlier versions of this page, are not directly comparable.
What costs, comparison differences, or risks are missing?
The S&P 500 figures use a dividends-reinvested index. The TradingView journals include reported net trade profit, but actual brokerage fills, spreads, financing and short-borrow costs, short dividend liabilities, market impact, subscription charges and ETF tracking can vary. Leveraged and inverse ETFs target daily returns and can diverge from 3× the index over longer periods. The two series are not fee-identical.
Are these actual results that subscribers received?
No. They are hypothetical and reconstructed historical results, not audited live account returns or subscriber experience. The live Collective2 strategy has its own trading conditions and a separate, independently visible track record. TradingView supplied the simulated trade records but did not independently audit or certify these reconstructed comparisons. Loss of principal is possible. Investment results are not guaranteed.
Sources: reconstructed QQQ long/short TradingView trade journal (2000–2026); Bull Bear 50 combined ledger of 862 historical exits (2010–2026); Bull Bear 4 and Bull Bear 6 TradingView trade journals exported October 21, 2026; historical ETF and S&P 500 Total Return index closing prices (Yahoo Finance); S&P 500 annual total returns. Comparison report dated October 23, 2026. Annual analysis ends December 31, 2025.